Photo : Adrian Dennis/Pool via REUTERS
21 February 2022, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #130
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Ashwin Dhanabalan
THE UK
PM Johnson speculates a Russian invasion of Ukraine
On 20 February, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson talked about the possible repercussions of a Russian invasion of Ukraine which would “echo around the world.” Johnson spoke at the security conference in Munich. He speculated an attack by Russian President Vladimir putting and called on the leaders, saying: “… that is why we must stand strong together.” His comments come when Western countries warned of a sudden invasion by Russia, with a 130,000 troop buildup at the Ukrainian border. Jhonson also said if an invasion did transpire then, “we will witness the destruction of a democratic state, a country that has been free for a generation, with a proud history of elections.” (“Ukraine: Shock of invasion would echo around the world, Boris Johnson says,” BBC, 19 February 2022)
REGIONAL
Ukraine: Macron holds a telephonic conversation with Putin
On 20 February, French President Emmanuel Macron held a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over de-escalation attempts regarding the Ukraine crisis. The two leaders decided on pursuing “intensified diplomatic efforts” to reach a solution to the ongoing standoff. The Kremlin called on these to be undertaken via the Normandy Format of talks. Following Macron’s call with Putin, he conducted a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the “need and possible ways of immediate de-escalation”. Meanwhile, the OSCE is expected to hold talks on Ukraine on 21 February. (“Ukraine latest: Macron urges Putin to ′avoid a major conflict′,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022; “Putin and Macron discuss need to step up Ukraine diplomacy, Kremlin says,” Reuters, 20 February 2022)
Belarus: Military drills with Russia to be extended
On 20 February, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that their bilateral military exercises with the Russian troops would be conducted beyond its scheduled deadline of 10 days. According to Defense Minister Victor Khrenin: “The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces.” Previously, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had maintained that the drills would end on the planned date. (“Ukraine: Belarus says military drills with Russia will continue,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022)
Welsh leaders visit Ukraine amid increasing escalation
On 20 February, two Welsh politicians, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price and Counsel General Mick Antoniw, visited Kyiv. Their visit was a show of solidarity with the people in Ukraine. Moreover, even though the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) had warned UK nationals to leave Ukraine, the two leaders said they wanted to “stand shoulder to shoulder” with the people. They have also planned to meet Ukrainian workers, LGBTQ+ people, ethnic minorities, and human rights defenders. Price said: “The more the Ukrainian people are threatened by Russian aggression and imperialism, the more urgent it becomes for socialists, democrats, and internationalist to stand shoulder to shoulder in solidarity with them - in defense of their right to national self-determination and in defiance of Putin’s warmongering.” (“Ukraine: Adam Price and Mick Antoniw arrive against advice,” BBC, 19 February 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine: G7 Foreign Ministers release statement
On 19 February, the G7 Foreign Ministers released a statement regarding the Ukraine crisis, expressing concern over the worsening conditions in the region. The joint statement released by the UK Foreign Ministry read: “We call on Russia to choose the path of diplomacy, to de-escalate tensions, to substantively withdraw military forces from the proximity of Ukraine's borders and to fully abide by international commitments… As a first step, we expect Russia to implement the announced reduction of its military activities along Ukraine's borders. We have seen no evidence of this reduction.” (“Ukraine latest: NATO chief says Russia planning ′full-scale attack′,” Deutsche Welle, 20 February 2022)
Ukraine: Biden agrees to summit with Putin
On 21 February, the White House released a statement announcing that U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine crisis. However, the meeting has been agreed to only “in principle if an invasion hasn’t happened”. Further details are unclear. More information regarding the summit is expected to be chalked out during the meeting on 24 February between the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The proposed summit is unclear also on the role Ukraine will play in the same. ("Biden agrees in principle to Ukraine summit with Putin," Reuters, 21 February 2022)
The US warns of a list that Moscow has combined to target Ukrainians
On 20 February, the US Ambassador to the UN Bathsheba, Nell Crocker, mentioned a list of targeted Ukrainians, saying: “credible information…to be killed or sent to camps”. She also said, “We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations.” Kremlin refuted the allegations and said: “You do understand that this is an absolute fake, that it’s a lie?” (Chloe Taylor, “US warns that Moscow has compiled lists of Ukrainians to target after invasion,” CNBC, 21 February 2022)
Vice President Kamala Harris extends support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
On 20 February, US Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding his defiant speech to the Munich Security Conference. Harris said: “His country is virtually surrounded by Russian troops. This is my belief, based on just my own assessment and speculation: He came here to make a very clear point that he does not stand alone.” Her comments came after Zelenskyy’s comments where he said: “We are going to protect our country with or without the support of our partners.” (David Cohen, “Harris offers support for defiant Ukrainian president,” POLITICO, 20 February 2022)